Probabilities
A couple of years ago we put up a post called “Halloween is behind us” which cited a 2008, Department of Justice research study that found Children are far more likely to be struck by a car on Halloween than be assaulted. As I do, in November of every year, I perform a quick post mortem on the holiday to identify the tragedies that took place during the recent holiday in order to validate the statistics.
Sadly, this year there were kids struck by cars while trick or treating, such as this 11-year-old was killed in Atlanta. There was also a sewing needle found in candy in Ohio. And, getting my blood really boiling, there was also a registrant in Utah that exposed himself to trick-or-treaters by answering his door naked.
Of these three tragedies, two are extremely, extremely rare occurrences and one is quite common. Can you guess which one? If you watched the news and saw all the warnings, you’d think it was the third, but no. Not even by a long shot.
In an article that came out just last week a University of Delaware sociology professor, who had researched the topic for nearly 40 years, found virtually no evidence that anyone sets out to trick or harm kids by putting razor blades, needles, poison or drugs into Halloween candy. …and then this happens! For years we’ve been challenging readers to identify just one incident of a sexual assault perpetrated by a registrant on Halloween… and then this happens!
As angry as I was to read about all these true Halloween horrors, I was particularly disappointed with the registrant one because I knew that would be the one to drive legislators to create some new law to punish us. There might as well be 10,000 kids struck by cars each Halloween and nobody is going to put a ban on non-emergency vehicle traffic “if it saves just one life”, but because of this one idiot, millions of families will spend this holiday each year on house arrest, lights out and afraid for a knock on the door.
Then I thought about it…
In risk assessment and most actuarial instruments, there’s no such thing as zero or 100% because there are no absolutes. A 100% chance is an absolute certainty. A 0% chance is an absolute impossibility. There is no way possible for someone to prove definitively that something will or will not ever happen. Could someone get struck by lightning minutes after winning the Powerball? It might have never happened to date, but it could. What about that old saying about ‘the only things that are certain are death and taxes’? Isn’t death an absolute? We believe so, but is it possible that scientists come up with some gene altering technology that can program a person’s DNA to never age? (If you ask some people, they think the likelihood of that happening is greater than the lightning-struck lottery winner).
So we are stuck with probabilities, the relative frequency of a random event occurring. When you consider the probability of your child getting struck by a car while trick-or-treating vs. the probability of your child getting sexually assaulted by someone on the registry, the chances are incomparable. So why aren’t there more articles reminding parents to teach their children to stay on the sidewalks when trick-or-treating and why aren’t there laws preventing anyone with a DUI, speeding ticket or other traffic violation from driving on Halloween?
I’m sure a lot is being made about the sex offender opening his door naked, but I’m pretty sure I read that he is mentally I’ll and his parent/caregiver had recently died, leaving him alone and fending for himself. In other words, just a sad story all around and a case of mental illness treatment – or lack thereof – being at crisis levels, assuming he kind of fell through the cracks. I can’t swear that I got those circumstances correct, but I believe there were quotes from his brother indicating that was the case. At any rate, certainly not the norm.
The reason , in answer to the last question is…what causes the most fear in parents? Sexual assault. And because the legislature understands this they use it like Thor’s hammer to crush and prevent full restoration of offenders and give life back to them and their families.
And to add to your list of questions:
1) Why isn’t there a lifetime registry for felony DUI’s and residency restrictions.
2) Why is there a lifetime registry for convicted drug dealers and residency restrictions. Every time there is an arrest in my area I look the person up at the Clerk of Courts and 90+ percent of the time they have numerous prior drug convictions.
I mean these registries would not be punishment for these people, just for public safety. If it saves just one kid. Isn’t that the standard?
I’m far more concerned about my house getting hit up by junkies or plowed over by the same drunk than someone on the SOR coming after a child. …It really pisses me off to see these constant B&Es, DUIers, and “nonviolent” drug offenders get the community outreach and clap on the back along with a second (more likely 5th or 11th) chance.
With that off my chest, I’m not in favor of any registry–no gun, no SO, no drug, etc. The government meddles too much in people affairs and staying the hell out is the best thing they can do. As the US has gotten more regulated, things have fallen downhill quickly.
Wow. One solitary incident where no children were harmed in any way. And yet we are going to focus on a lone incident. But I guess now the media have something besides a 40 year old case committed by someone who would not have been on the registry and knew the victim. What do expect from a nation full of people to lick horse paste and festoon their houses with onions because some talking head told them it cures COVID?
Excellent viewpoint !! How do we teach common sense to those that seem to have none???