Extremely Misleading Massachusetts and Maine Report on Recidivism
The recently-released report “Recidivism Among Sex Offenders in Massachusetts & Maine” shows how statistics can be slanted to make people believe whatever you want them to believe.
According to themainewire.com, “The report was funded by a Bureau of Justice Statistics grant, in order to provide policy makers with empirical data on a critical issue of public safety – sex crimes committed by reoffenders.”
But the report includes any arrest that resulted in a conviction within a five-year period from release. This included arrests for sex offenses, violent offenses, registry violations, and any other type of offense.
Part of the problem is that release from a sex offense conviction triggers the criminalization of otherwise-ordinary behaviors, such as failure to timely update a temporary address, that have been shown to have nothing to do with sexual re-offending. These behaviors are usually known as “failures to register.”
Among “Key Findings” on page 2: Maine’s five-year recidivism rate was 43%.
Buried down on page 34 of the report is the statement: “Overall, only 5% of recidivating offenses included a sex offense” for sex offenders in Maine who were released from 2005 to 2019. This is the same Maine study that showed a recidivism rate of 43% on page 2 of the report.
For our math-minded people, 5% of the released inmates committed a new sex offense out of the group of 43% in Maine who committed any type of offense. If you were to look at the entire group of people released in Maine (661) who had previously committed a sex offense (with some re-offending and some not), it would not be 5% of the entire 661 people used in the Maine study.
5% of 43% of 661 = 14 people leaving prison for a sex crime and committing a new sex offense.
What percent of the total people (661) in the study, with some committing an offense and some not, is 14 people? Answer: 2%
Yes, 2% of the 661 people released from prison for a prior sex offense in this Maine study committed a new sex offense.
Is this made clear in the report? Absolutely not!!!
The problem with this report is its use of the word recidivism – a word that is not defined with uniformity throughout various studies. Even this report, “Recidivism Among Sex Offenders in Massachusetts & Maine,” acknowledges in the Executive Summary on page 1 that the “…recidivism definitions…can vary across local, state, and federal agencies.”
The raw data in this report is probably correct, but the conclusions being drawn are grossly misleading.
The comment section is still open at themainewire.com.
Why don’t they do some actual useful studies like a way to help the homeless. In my area there are so many homeless camps that they could teach the boy scouts a thing or two about building a camp from scratch.
Page 17 seems to show a favorable outcome to this study.
Thanks to whomever put this out. I did the math, too, to “teach” myself (helps for retention too) and this 2% figure is appalling.
Here’s something else: I cannot recall where in the last few months I read that ‘recidivism’ rates vary so widely they even consider subjective factors, such as the opinion of the probation officer as to whether or not the person would reoffend! How one quantifies THAT, I have no idea, but we must constantly remind lawmakers how dishonest the DOC and other paid-study hacks are, and why we must rely on the sober results gained by objective, non-partisan, scientific, peer-reviewed studies.
Wonky math to support a desired outcome. Follow the $
Of course this means to follow the money. There’s money in keeping the people scared of boogeymen all the time.
Yep.
There are lies, damn lies … and then there’s statistics. 😒