Canadian Journal of Criminology and Justice: In time, the general population poses a similar risk of a first time sexual offense as a PFR poses of re-offense.

A new study provocatively titled, “There is No Such Thing as Zero Risk of Sexual Offense” declares that neither the general population nor the population of PFRs (Person Forced to Register) can be determined to be risk free from the occurrence of a sexual offense.  

 

Acknowledging that many studies show low rates of recidivism by PFRs, or qualify those populations of known risk, this study sought to set a baseline understanding of a general population.  The researchers determined that knowing what risk exists in general society is an important comparator.  

 

Their research concludes that after 10 years of being on the Canadian registry, the risk of recidivism is less than 2%.  They determine the aggregate risk of a sex offense from the general population is roughly 1%.  They show that in time, the risk from the general population has a propensity to grow while the risk of recidivism shrinks “making the numbers indistinguishable.”

 

The conclusion is that long term, or lifetime, registration and restriction solutions serve no societal function. 

 

NOTE: This study is behind a paywall with restrictive data rights.

 

SOURCE

11 thoughts on “Canadian Journal of Criminology and Justice: In time, the general population poses a similar risk of a first time sexual offense as a PFR poses of re-offense.

  • January 2, 2024 at 4:52 pm
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    People can submit a form to their state courts to be removed and made a valid argument.

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      • January 3, 2024 at 11:04 am
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        Actually, several have successfully been removed from the registry in Florida. I was ready to move forward myself and when I found out who the judge was, I backed out with the blessings of the lawyer. It depends on the judge you get.
        Some are letting people off at 20 years, some at 25. (There have been rulings by judges saying it is 20 and another said 25 so that is where the appeal is right now, awaiting a higher court decision, 20 years, 25 or never)
        And some judges couldn’t care if Christ Himself said we could get off the registry, they wouldn’t budge. I am awaiting the ruling decision before I apply again for removal. And was told there is no timeline for them to rule so could take years.

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        • January 3, 2024 at 12:39 pm
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          I am aware of that process, but there is no “form” to submit. I went through the expense to ask for removal after 20 years, and was denied.

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  • January 2, 2024 at 5:46 pm
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    What more proof of needed? Doing the ridiculous court-mandated therapy, my Dr said the same thing… there is no such thing as Zero Risk.. everyone is capable of offending. And isn’t that proven constantly, with what, 90 -95% of all NEW “crimes” being committed by 1st time offenders?

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    • January 3, 2024 at 10:31 pm
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      Maybe something will change after there are more citizens on the registry than not. If 51% of a state’s population was on the registry without any chance to be removed, something has to give. Every week day someone is being sentenced. If people are not being removed, even after dying or moving away, the jar is going to overflow.
      But again, we know it is ALL about funding. Money seems to be more important than people healing and moving on. How can we prove we are not dangerous if we are held behind an invisible line that we cannot cross?

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  • January 2, 2024 at 5:52 pm
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    Law makers, law enforcement, prosecutors and judges will all say “See, the registry is working, look how low the offense rate is because the registry is doing its’ job”. And then rule we all have to be on the list for life. Most of us in Florida are anyway, and many like myself, retroactively applied.
    It is nice to see research, but until a judge or a law maker has the guts to change the rules, laws, ordinances and other harmful punishments, we will be 3rd class citizens, looked upon as society’s pariah.

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    • January 3, 2024 at 1:11 pm
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      The registry is NOT working because it is proven there isn’t any less recidivism since the registry existed than before
      the registry existed.

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  • January 3, 2024 at 9:41 am
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    After going through required probational offender therapy in a group session, I was released early from the program by the therapist as he stated in the paperwork that I was a very low risk for re-offense.
    At the half way point of my probation, a judge ruled to end the rest of my probation due to low risk of offense.
    Thirty four years later with no new offenses, I am still on lifetime registry?????????? Because I might have a 1 in quadzillion chance of looking at someone with googly eyes, so they just cannot take that risk…..of losing funding.

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    • January 3, 2024 at 1:02 pm
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      Similar situation. I did private therapy which I finished in 9 months. Got early release from probation at the half-way point with NO opposition. The State did not object, the judge barely looked up from the bench before approving the termination. But that was only 3 months ago. So, I’m dead in the water unless this whole scheme gets overturned.

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  • January 3, 2024 at 3:30 pm
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    I feel for you as I can’t seem to catch a break either. However, when all of us were arrested, we had to pay sometimes tens of 1000s of dollars to go to court. I spent $22,000 on my original case and I got a worse case scenario sentence of 22 years. I could have gotten that without an attorney.
    Having said that, in courtrooms, there are simply no guarantee of an outcome. The Messiah could come down and speak on our behalf and some of these judges would still send us away to rot.

    And I do not agree with putting sex offenders in with murderers and other violent offenders, as we are sitting targets as the guards tell the inmates about our charges to get us beaten down. I got attacked by 4 guys and they all said I started it, they got exonerated and I went to lock up and lost all my gain time. I even tried to get them to let me take a polygraph and they wouldn’t even consider that option because they knew exactly what they were doing. I had to have my parents call the warden and get me transferred.

    Reply

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